Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb18…c264 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$341 (+8%) realized +$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day119.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 46% -8.5%
≤30d 50 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 46% -8.5%
≤90d 50 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 46% -8.5%
all 50 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 46% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 46% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 46% -17.3%
15% -23.7% 44% -25.2%
20% -31.2% 38% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$73 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day119.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $119 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $225 −$161 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $253 −$240 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $448 −$389 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $390 −$235 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $253 +$240 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $410 +$394 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $95 +$179 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $45 +$36 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$21 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$75 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $99 +$103 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $98 +$54 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $94 +$143 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$50 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $157 −$152 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $72 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $86 +$90 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $90 −$48 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $167 −$161 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$17 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $200 −$129 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $147 +$197 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$25 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $29 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $111 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $44 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records