Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb1b…a11d
tech · 180 markets active 15d ago
1.5score
+$19,227 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,603 · open +$1,552
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4,954
Realized+$17,603
Unrealized+$1,552
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses92 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)166 / 180
Avg bet$1,088
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 14 History 166 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 93¢ $1,120 $1,858 +$738 (+66%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 27¢ 64¢ $312 $738 +$426 (+137%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 34¢ 72¢ $238 $500 +$262 (+110%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 24¢ 47¢ $224 $441 +$217 (+97%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 18¢ $393 $412 +$19 (+5%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 45¢ 99¢ $181 $399 +$217 (+120%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? No 20¢ 12¢ $478 $279 −$200 (-42%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $62 $133 +$71 (+115%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 60¢ 10¢ $415 $73 −$342 (-82%)
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes 46¢ 22¢ $104 $51 −$53 (-51%)
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? No 32¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+206%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 54¢ 78¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+44%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? No 60¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+59%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 34¢ 1¢ $64 $1 −$63 (-98%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Yes 45¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+97%)
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? No 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? No 19¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
X Money launch in 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year? No 31¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $49 +$5 +10%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $1,254 +$146 +12%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 23 $1,682 +$368 +22%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 01 $141 +$64 +45%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 01 $231 +$864 +374%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $968 +$2,827 +292%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $3,063 +$9,790 +320%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? Mar 31 $117 +$143 +122%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 31 $1,792 +$206 +12%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 31 $1,967 +$1,675 +85%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 16 $1,079 −$19 -2%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Mar 16 $80 +$84 +105%
GPT-5.4 released by March 9? Mar 16 $579 +$25 +4%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 05 $134 +$13 +10%
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? Mar 05 $1,292 +$396 +31%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $11,158 −$9,811 -88%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $4,139 −$996 -24%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last E Feb 18 $805 +$130 +16%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $1,854 −$928 -50%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 17 $541 +$15 +3%
Grok 4.20 released by February 14? Feb 17 $1,077 +$221 +20%
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Feb 09 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Feb 05 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 04 $2,058 −$2,057 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 04 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30? Feb 03 $453 −$255 -56%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 03 $613 +$10 +2%
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026? Feb 03 $6,761 −$3,923 -58%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $970 +$846 +87%
Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026 Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? Feb 03 $2,192 +$363 +16%
Grok 4.20 released by January 31? Feb 01 $57 +$420 +742%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31? Feb 01 $146 +$12 +8%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 01 $1,898 +$470 +25%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,583 +$767 +48%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Feb 01 $4,852 +$782 +16%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 01 $12,985 +$1,412 +11%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026 Feb 01 $10 $0 +5%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Feb 01 $246 +$54 +22%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jan 24 $1,501 −$551 -37%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1,501 −$1,067 -71%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 03 $293 +$32 +11%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $3,544 +$125 +4%
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $481 −$481 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Jan 01 $1,278 −$18 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 74% +$5,688
other 22% +$12,617
world 2% −$245
politics 2% +$1,278
culture 0% −$174
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 14d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $910 49d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $297 50d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 50d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $0 50d
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 50d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $19 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 15¢ $60 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 28¢ $8 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 28¢ $1 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 13¢ $26 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $64 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $2 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $133 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $72 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $1 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 30¢ $2 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 30¢ $75 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 28¢ $12 51d
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? BUY No 25¢ $2 51d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 54d
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? BUY No 0¢ $22 98d
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? BUY Yes 97¢ $970 98d
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? BUY Yes 94¢ $56 98d
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? BUY No 3¢ $30 98d
GPT-5.4 released by March 9? BUY Yes 96¢ $579 98d
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 98d
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,688 98d
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $133 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 0% -0.6%
≤90d 14 +92.9% +74.5% 86% 71% +102.9%
all 166 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 42% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% +0.7%
10% -18.1% 27% -9.0%
15% -26.0% 20% -17.8%
20% -33.2% 16% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,953.53 · official $4,952.53 (match) · 1572 history records