Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb20…fbf1 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized −$63 · open +$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$2,468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$15
14 days−$64
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$131
world 27% −$78
politics 8% −$2
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.3% -3.0% 75% 75% -2.6%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 62% -13.2%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 62% -13.2%
all 8 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 62% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 62% -13.2%
10% -19.2% 50% -21.5%
15% -27.0% 38% -29.1%
20% -34.1% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$131 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$2,468
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage20d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,418 $1,493 +$75 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $337 $351 +$14 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $282 $281 −$2 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 82¢ 86¢ $266 $279 +$13 (+5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $212 −$212 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $698 +$133 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$1 +3%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $34 +$14 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 83¢ $151 7d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 82¢ $102 7d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 81¢ $16 7d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $337 9d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $282 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $212 9d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $30 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $1,396 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $698 19d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $34 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,468.30 · official $2,468.30 (match) · 22 history records