Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FB 0xfb22…befb other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$145 (-7%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$223
14 days−$145
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$253
sports 19% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.9% +11.2% 36% 36% +21.1%
≤30d 18 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 39% -16.3%
≤90d 18 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 39% -16.3%
all 18 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 39% -16.3%
10% -15.5% 39% -24.3%
15% -23.6% 39% -31.6%
20% -31.1% 28% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$80 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage13d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 −$19 -26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$119 +117%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$138 +270%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $48 +$99 +205%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $142 +$84 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $137 −$135 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $402 −$400 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $336 +$146 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $31 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $43 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 7h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 31h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 42h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 42h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 80¢ $221 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $189 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $147 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $137 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $142 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $142 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $336 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records