Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb22…8186 weather 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$88
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$58
other 44% −$98
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 25% -1.6%
≤30d 11 -7.3% -16.2% 55% 18% -12.7%
≤90d 11 -7.3% -16.2% 55% 18% -12.7%
all 11 -7.3% -16.2% 55% 18% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 18% -12.7%
10% -24.2% 9% -21.0%
15% -31.5% 9% -28.7%
20% -38.2% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$33 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage12d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 96¢ $106 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $148 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $26 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $338 +$44 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $311 +$29 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $127 −$127 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $106 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $135 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $99 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $44 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $93 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 45¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $78 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $39 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $49 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 81¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 78¢ $101 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 91¢ $311 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 14¢ $96 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 15¢ $15 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 14¢ $16 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $5 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.55 · official $105.55 (match) · 38 history records