Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb24…bffd sports 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+4%) realized +$76 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%190W / 124L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$110
14 days−$15
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$64
world 27% +$6
politics 6% +$24
other 4% −$24
crypto 1% +$21
economics 1% −$16
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -20.5% -28.1% 49% 29% -29.7%
≤30d 211 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 39% -6.3%
≤90d 314 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 39% -7.0%
all 314 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 39% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 39% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 29% -15.9%
15% -27.1% 23% -24.0%
20% -34.3% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses190 / 124
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions17
Markets (closed)314 / 331
History coverage73d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 71¢ 88¢ $33 $41 +$8 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 43¢ 81¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+90%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 75¢ 87¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 19¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-78%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $11 +$2 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $30 +$5 +17%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$19 +310%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$3 -62%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $27 −$1 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $6 +$5 +88%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $24 +$19 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Fuego win LRN 2026 Split 1? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $30 +$33 +109%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$5 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $6 +$13 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 89¢ $1 19m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 89¢ $1 19m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 88¢ $1 20m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 87¢ $1 23m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 87¢ $1 25m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 87¢ $1 25m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 87¢ $1 25m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 87¢ $1 25m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $27 27m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.09 · official $129.09 (match) · 3104 history records