Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb25…6617 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%46W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$67
crypto 10% +$2
sports 4% −$22
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.3%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses46 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage586d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 03 $19 $0 +1%
Blues vs. Avalanche Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the match between Spain and Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain beat Switzerland? Jun 11 $148 −$30 -20%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $5,231 −$5 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Jan 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Jan 22 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 99¢ $56 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 90d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $18 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 92d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $54 151d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 182d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 182d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $33 183d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 210d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $42 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 271d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 300d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 302d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $34 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $19 365d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.23 · official $64.23 (match) · 139 history records