Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb25…f7f3 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$842 (-9%) realized −$743 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days−$743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$1,134
sports 6% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 50% +16.3%
≤30d 40 -9.6% -18.2% 45% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 55 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 27% -18.6%
all 55 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 27% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 27% -18.6%
10% -24.4% 20% -26.4%
15% -31.7% 15% -33.5%
20% -38.4% 9% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$58 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$743
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage33d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 4¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$48 +24%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$57 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $187 −$64 -34%
Botafogo FC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 25 $46 +$2 +4%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $146 −$49 -34%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $274 −$23 -8%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 May 24 $100 +$46 +46%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $119 +$25 +21%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $95 −$6 -6%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $114 +$2 +1%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $45 +$7 +14%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $127 −$31 -24%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $295 −$183 -62%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $202 −$41 -20%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $99 −$14 -14%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $270 −$98 -36%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $194 +$52 +27%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $308 +$120 +39%
Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $200 −$129 -65%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $880 −$72 -8%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $350 +$99 +28%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 21 $422 −$136 -32%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $181 −$32 -18%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $70 +$124 +177%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $268 +$29 +11%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $200 −$114 -57%
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $200 −$49 -25%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $17 +$17 +97%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $475 −$197 -41%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $99 −$6 -6%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $211 $0 +0%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 −$66 -66%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $32 −$13 -40%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 −$25 -25%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $203 −$23 -11%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $113 +$43 +38%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $399 −$140 -35%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 −$41 -42%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $200 +$22 +11%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $202 −$48 -24%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $359 −$69 -19%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $248 −$17 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 3¢ $50 57m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $3 57m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 57m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 57m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $29 57m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $18 57m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $248 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 22¢ $107 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $16 19h
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-25? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 22d
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 22d
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 22d
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-25? SELL No 39¢ $50 22d
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-25? BUY No 55¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.74 · official $1.33 (match) · 403 history records