Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb27…979e crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-8%) realized −$72 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$75
other 39% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 25% -51.6%
≤30d 31 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 52% -22.0%
≤90d 31 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 52% -22.0%
all 31 -8.8% -17.5% 58% 52% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 52% -22.0%
10% -25.4% 48% -29.5%
15% -32.6% 39% -36.3%
20% -39.2% 23% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $371 $367 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$19 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $113 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.05 · official $367.05 (match) · 153 history records