Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:49:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb29…91a4 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+7%) realized +$183 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$169
world 15% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +10.5% -0.1% 86% 71% -2.7%
≤30d 7 +10.5% -0.1% 86% 71% -2.7%
≤90d 7 +10.5% -0.1% 86% 71% -2.7%
all 7 +10.5% -0.1% 86% 71% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 71% -2.7%
10% -9.6% 29% -12.0%
15% -18.3% 0% -20.5%
20% -26.4% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$147 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 90¢ $389 $391 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $348 +$42 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $297 +$51 +17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $443 −$147 -33%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $370 +$74 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $294 +$76 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $274 +$20 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $221 +$54 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $390 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $348 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $297 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 52¢ $297 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $443 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $370 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $294 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $274 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $221 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.84 · official $390.84 (match) · 15 history records