trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -17.6% | -25.4% | 33% | 33% | -48.6% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -17.6% | -25.4% | 33% | 33% | -48.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -17.6% | -25.4% | 33% | 33% | -48.6% |
| all | 15 | -30.8% | -37.4% | 27% | 27% | -65.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.4% | 27% | -65.9% |
| 10% | -43.4% | 20% | -69.2% |
| 15% | -48.8% | 20% | -72.1% |
| 20% | -53.8% | 13% | -74.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 64¢ | 62¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 69¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 86¢ | $13 | $12 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 37¢ | 37¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 46¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-47%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $12 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $20 | +$10 | +48% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on | Jun 20 | $15 | −$11 | -74% |
| Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $75 | −$74 | -99% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $71 | −$53 | -74% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $90 | −$49 | -54% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$12 | +61% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $19 | +$24 | +124% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $37 | −$18 | -48% |
| Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? | Nov 17 | $34 | −$17 | -50% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Nov 05 | $153 | −$153 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 03 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |