Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FB 0xfb2d…da23 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$188 (+0%) realized +$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%84W / 59L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$72
sports 33% +$20
other 8% +$188
crypto 1% −$6
weather 0% −$28
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +30.4% +17.9% 41% 41% -9.2%
≤30d 40 +17.0% +5.9% 40% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 52 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 40% -9.5%
all 143 +14.9% +3.9% 59% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 34% -9.5%
10% -6.0% 27% -18.2%
15% -15.1% 23% -26.1%
20% -23.4% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses84 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage627d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $14 +$10 +73%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $16 +$16 +97%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,758 −$5 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,729 −$11 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $448 −$3 -1%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $21 +$22 +102%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,743 −$5 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,520 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,652 −$3 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$18 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $11 +$12 +105%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,809 −$2 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $70 −$1 -1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $10 +$14 +134%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 10 $12 +$22 +180%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $12 +$10 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $22 +$16 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $44 +$25 +56%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $9,928 −$20 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $22 +$10 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $5,110 −$3 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,801 −$2 -0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,489 −$10 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Flames Apr 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 10 $53 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Ducks Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Devils vs. Penguins Mar 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 P Mar 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs los kogutos (+1.5) Mar 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Oilers vs. Ducks Mar 18 $4 +$4 +104%
LoL: Joblife vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $14 34h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 50¢ $16 34h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $543 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $216 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $69 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.95 · official $104.95 (match) · 517 history records