Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb2e…889f
weather · 694 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,498 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,514 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$172
Realized+$1,514
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses184 / 450
Open positions49
Markets (closed)634 / 694
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day239.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 49 History 634 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,031
7 days−$487
14 days+$1,514
30 days+$1,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $9 $50 +$41 (+456%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+186%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+143%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 29? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on May 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 20? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 28? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 26? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 21? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 29? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 17? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 28? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 31? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 23? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 21? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 27? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 7m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 -22.1% -29.5% 23% 23% -28.8%
≤30d 634 +13.9% +3.1% 29% 29% -0.5%
≤90d 634 +13.9% +3.1% 29% 29% -0.5%
all 634 +13.9% +3.1% 29% 29% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover239.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 29% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 28% -10.0%
15% -15.8% 28% -18.7%
20% -24.1% 28% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.23 · official $172.23 (match) · 3500 history records