Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb31…7b95 sports 995 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50,942 (-16%) realized −$50,942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%283W / 712L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$3,135est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$176
14 days−$690
30 days−$1,395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$53,240
other 0% −$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 27 -31.1% -37.6% 19% 15% -40.5%
≤90d 437 -22.2% -29.6% 27% 26% -22.3%
all 995 -17.0% -24.9% 28% 28% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 28% -25.0%
10% -32.1% 28% -32.2%
15% -38.7% 27% -38.8%
20% -44.7% 26% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$562 vs −$299 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50,942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses283 / 712
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$3,135
Open positions0
Markets (closed)995 / 995
History coverage137d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 995 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $507 −$452 -89%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$378 +369%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $756 −$743 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $241 +$408 +170%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $65 −$51 -78%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $79 −$77 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $203 −$200 -98%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Bernard Tomic May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Stefanos Sakellaridis May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 31 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Vicenza: Stefano Travaglia vs Jacopo Vasami May 31 $214 −$214 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $235 −$231 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $175 +$365 +208%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $608 −$382 -63%
Little Rock: Jay Dylan Friend vs Justin Boulais May 30 $103 +$557 +543%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Cervia: Max Alcala Gurri vs Buvaysar Gadamauri May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Magdalena Frech vs Gabriela Ruse May 24 $96 −$96 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 24 $203 −$203 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anhelina Kali May 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Nuno Borges May 24 $143 −$143 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $154 −$154 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $256 −$256 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $307 −$307 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 24 $510 −$510 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe May 24 $1,019 −$897 -88%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces May 24 $153 +$287 +187%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $21 +$149 +724%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $36 +$28 +76%
Wuerzburg vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 22 $203 +$241 +118%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi May 20 $509 +$774 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 33¢ $2 4d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 32¢ $41 4d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 39¢ $56 9d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 6¢ $55 9d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 51¢ $51 9d
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 54¢ $507 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $465 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 50¢ $15 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $102 9d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 33¢ $44 10d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 44¢ $407 10d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 40¢ $305 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $649 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $37 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $204 10d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Tyra Caterina Grant 37¢ $34 17d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 26¢ $51 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $51 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $51 17d
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 26¢ $15 22d
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Oliver Tarvet 8¢ $15 22d
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 34¢ $65 22d
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 26¢ $79 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $203 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 28¢ $32 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2599 history records