Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb32…0035 crypto 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$241 (+2%) realized +$257 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%79W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$456
7 days+$416
14 days+$416
30 days+$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$361
other 17% +$498
sports 6% +$382
world 4% −$56
politics 1% −$20
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +10.0% -0.5% 42% 31% +7.8%
≤30d 74 +10.0% -0.5% 42% 31% +7.8%
≤90d 78 +6.0% -4.1% 41% 31% +5.9%
all 193 -8.0% -16.7% 41% 36% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 36% -5.5%
10% -24.7% 35% -14.5%
15% -32.0% 33% -22.8%
20% -38.6% 27% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$34 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses79 / 114
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)193 / 200
History coverage179d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +218%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $25 −$13 -54%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 17 $67 −$17 -25%
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $38 −$1 -2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $41 +$323 +785%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +96%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 +$18 +71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$35 +70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$10 +34%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $90 −$3 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $83 −$3 -4%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 12h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 12h
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 30¢ $6 12h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 65¢ $13 12h
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 49¢ $10 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 12h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 22¢ $0 12h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 12h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 12h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $2 12h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St SELL Yes 61¢ $2 12h
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 57¢ $6 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 27¢ $13 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 71¢ $30 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $51 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 19h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.00 · official $384.11 · 881 history records