Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FB 0xfb33…c3d6 politics 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$581 (-21%) realized −$554 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$4
politics 27% −$312
world 9% −$73
crypto 6% −$40
culture 5% −$103
tech 1% −$10
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -78.7%
≤30d 1 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -78.7%
≤90d 1 -76.5% -78.7% 0% 0% -78.7%
all 44 -42.4% -47.9% 25% 25% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 25% -37.4%
10% -52.9% 23% -43.4%
15% -57.5% 23% -48.9%
20% -61.6% 20% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$30 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage531d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $610 $434 −$176 (-29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $200 $361 +$161 (+81%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $201 $170 −$32 (-16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $46 $65 +$19 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$79 -76%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? May 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? May 11 $40 +$77 +190%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 09 $53 −$13 -24%
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Brutalist" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film Mar 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 Mar 03 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? Feb 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $50 +$42 +85%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10? Jan 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? Jan 29 $30 −$18 -59%
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? Jan 29 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24? Jan 24 $40 −$20 -51%
Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 35-38 people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 22 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration? Jan 20 $122 −$112 -92%
Will Trump inauguration be the most viewed ever? Jan 20 $30 +$22 +75%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 5 or more times during victory rally? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during victory rally? Jan 20 $33 +$37 +113%
Will Trump say "Border" 10 or more times during victory rally? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during victory rally? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 16? Jan 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally? Jan 20 $12 +$18 +144%
Israel announces ceasefire by January 17? Jan 19 $99 +$67 +67%
Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration? Jan 18 $70 +$31 +45%
Yoon arrested by Friday? Jan 15 $50 +$97 +194%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 13 $100 −$20 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $207 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $200 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $627 10d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 409d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 410d
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 410d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 410d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? SELL Yes 91¢ $117 410d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with China before July? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 420d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 442d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 29¢ $53 444d
Will Trump say 'Mexico' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? BUY No 2¢ $10 477d
Will Trump say 'Zelenskyy' during the 2025 State of the Union? BUY No 44¢ $20 477d
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? BUY No 3¢ $10 477d
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio BUY Yes 51¢ $30 477d
Will Trump say 'unemployment' during the 2025 State of the Union? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 477d
Will "The Brutalist" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 480d
Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film BUY Yes 36¢ $50 481d
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best International Feature Film at the 2025 BUY Yes 60¢ $30 481d
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 507d
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 508d
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 509d
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 509d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? SELL No 20¢ $12 510d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? BUY No 33¢ $20 510d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $80 510d
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10? BUY No 10¢ $13 512d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.48 · official $1,030.48 (match) · 152 history records