Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FB 0xfb35…f9b5 weather 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 130d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$50
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 5 -19.7% -27.4% 80% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -34.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -40.7% 0% -27.0%
20% -46.5% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,469
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)5 / 34
History coverage130d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 41°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $50 +$50 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 28? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 27? Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 0m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $10 9m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 22m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 33m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $38 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $28 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $8 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $27 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $30 49m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $7 52m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 52m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $50 58m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,469.04 · official $1,468.63 (match) · 65 history records