Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb39…aeaf
crypto · 247 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$44 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses102 / 137
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)239 / 247
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 8 History 239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$9
14 days−$72
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Down 25¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 +$10 +124%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +185%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -21%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -36%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +131%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 +$1 +103%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +79%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $1 −$1 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +214%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -41%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% +$49
sports 18% +$11
other 6% −$10
weather 3% +$3
finance 3% +$2
world 3% +$1
tech 1% −$7
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 33m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $1 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 21¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 43¢ $1 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 56¢ $1 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 34¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 67¢ $1 23h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 79¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +31.0% +18.5% 43% 43% -0.5%
≤30d 239 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 35% -5.2%
≤90d 239 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 35% -5.2%
all 239 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 35% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 35% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 29% -14.3%
15% -30.1% 22% -22.6%
20% -36.9% 18% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.88 · official $14.88 (match) · 587 history records