Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb3a…4007 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+3%) realized +$151 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day167.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$125
sports 5% +$146
other 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 39% -8.8%
≤30d 56 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 39% -8.8%
≤90d 56 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 39% -8.8%
all 56 -10.2% -18.8% 55% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover167.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 39% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 27% -17.6%
15% -33.7% 14% -25.5%
20% -40.2% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$151
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day167.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 65¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $125 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $230 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $134 −$14 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $193 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$10 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$12 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $260 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $129 +$102 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $73 −$44 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $140 −$66 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$84 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $232 −$73 -31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $132 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $209 +$95 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$114 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $108 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $202 +$129 +64%
Alexander Zverev vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $129 +$41 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$20 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$21 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $24 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $101 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $99 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $107 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $128 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $108 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $180 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $113 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $15 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $89 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 34m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.53 · official $175.53 (match) · 176 history records