Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb3a…5998 sports 69 markets active 7h ago coverage 76d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9,090 (+4%) realized +$14,281 · open −$5,191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate83%54W / 11L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$3,041per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$19,436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$7,474
other 15% +$1,408
politics 11% −$4,568
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.1% -42.2% 38% 25% -36.8%
≤30d 35 +4.0% -5.9% 69% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 65 +20.7% +9.2% 83% 45% -4.8%
all 65 +20.7% +9.2% 83% 45% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.2% 45% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.2% 26% -13.9%
15% -10.8% 23% -22.2%
20% -19.5% 15% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$2,938) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$830 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$19,436
Realized+$14,281
Unrealized−$5,191
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses54 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage76d
Avg bet$3,041
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $7,500 $12,068 +$4,568 (+61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $7,500 $2,932 −$4,568 (-61%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 72¢ $3,255 $2,502 −$752 (-23%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 57¢ $1,680 $1,725 +$45 (+3%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $124 $208 +$84 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $353 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $511 −$506 -99%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $4,879 +$121 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $491 +$1,509 +308%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $140 −$138 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $444 +$56 +12%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $551 −$547 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $263 +$137 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 15 $515 −$512 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $3,450 −$3,450 -100%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $5,964 +$293 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5,317 +$100 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4,121 +$879 +21%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $1,427 +$43 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $348 +$152 +44%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $455 +$45 +10%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,283 +$61 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,052 +$70 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $440 +$60 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $469 +$131 +28%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5,145 +$979 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $486 +$314 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $646 −$546 -84%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$6 +170%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $35 +$54 +153%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 24 $136 +$115 +85%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $228 +$282 +124%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $32 +$16 +49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $21 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 22 $688 +$40 +6%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $17,124 +$2,375 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 16 $585 +$82 +14%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $895 +$105 +12%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner May 14 $6 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 14 $2,473 +$107 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 13 $726 +$274 +38%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 12 $397 +$103 +26%
Will there be a 1v5 ace clutch in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 pla May 04 $1,393 +$44 +3%
Will there be a reverse sweep in the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 gran May 03 $416 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $1,969 +$7 +0%
Will the winning team not lose a single map throughout BLAST Rivals Fo May 03 $2,880 +$6 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $11,259 +$191 +2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 03 $696 +$28 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 03 $1,664 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 03 $3,016 +$404 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,702 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $26 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $33 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $353 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 41¢ $103 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $104 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $148 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $238 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $140 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $19 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $60 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $9 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $18 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $83 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $20 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $20 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $17 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $6 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $13 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $15 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $14 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,435.62 · official $19,435.62 (match) · 639 history records