Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

FB 0xfb3c…54bf sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$419 (+11%) realized +$421 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%19W / 13L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$112per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Fees−$47est.

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$328

7 days−$3

14 days+$561

30 days+$561

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)+0.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-7.5%	-16.3%	52%	52%	-9.6%
≤30d	32	+11.1%	+0.5%	59%	59%	+4.6%
≤90d	32	+11.1%	+0.5%	59%	59%	+4.6%
all	32	+11.1%	+0.5%	59%	59%	+4.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.5%	59%	+4.6%
10%	-9.1%	59%	-5.4%
15%	-17.9%	59%	-14.5%
20%	-25.9%	50%	-22.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +48% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$101 vs −$104 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$198

Realized+$421

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses19 / 13

Est. fees paid−$47

Open positions2

Markets (closed)32 / 34

History coverage10d

Avg bet$112

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Over	70¢	69¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Over	48¢	48¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$202	+$158	+79%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$134	−$134	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$50	+50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$100	+$70	+70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$201	+$139	+70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 20	$101	+$44	+44%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$102	−$100	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$102	−$100	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$101	+$74	+73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$102	+$98	+97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$101	−$101	-100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 18	$104	−$104	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 18	$101	−$101	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$103	−$103	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$103	−$103	-100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 18	$103	−$103	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$102	+$98	+96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$103	+$117	+113%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$101	+$84	+83%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$101	+$65	+65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$209	+$171	+82%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$104	+$56	+54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$102	+$126	+124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$101	+$119	+117%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$100	+$100	+100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$102	+$48	+47%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$102	+$148	+144%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$100	+$150	+150%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$102	1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	70¢	$101	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	56¢	$188	3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	56¢	$14	3h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	67¢	$88	8h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	67¢	$46	8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	59¢	$100	27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$201	30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	69¢	$101	2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$102	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$101	3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$102	4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$102	4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$103	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$103	4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$101	5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$101	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$1	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$12	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$4	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$3	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$85	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$5	5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$99	5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$102	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.23 · official $198.24 (match) · 76 history records