trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 9 | +64.8% | +49.1% | 22% | 22% | +692.3% |
| all | 15 | +61.8% | +46.4% | 33% | 27% | +582.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +46.4% | 27% | +582.6% |
| 10% | +32.4% | 27% | +517.3% |
| 15% | +19.6% | 27% | +457.6% |
| 20% | +7.9% | 27% | +402.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $2,202 | $2,437 | +$234 (+11%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $1,001 | $848 | −$153 (-15%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $217 | $288 | +$71 (+32%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $112 | $110 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $108 | $62 | −$46 (-42%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | $100 | $42 | −$58 (-58%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 17 | $1,939 | +$21,851 | +1127% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 02 | $69 | −$69 | -100% |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | Apr 01 | $222 | +$231 | +104% |
| Khamenei public appearance by Friday? | Mar 31 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| US strike on Colombia by January 31? | Mar 31 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will "Hottest" be said at the Oscars? | Mar 31 | $113 | −$54 | -48% |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | Mar 31 | $341 | −$341 | -100% |
| Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $59 | +$282 | +479% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 12 | $100 | −$81 | -81% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $102 | +$66 | +65% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 11 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | Jan 05 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) opening price Up or Down on January 5? | Jan 05 | $77 | −$17 | -23% |