Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb3e…7286 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$614 (-29%) realized −$614 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$364
other 43% −$486
crypto 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -44.3% -49.6% 30% 30% -15.5%
≤30d 20 -44.3% -49.6% 30% 30% -15.5%
≤90d 20 -44.3% -49.6% 30% 30% -15.5%
all 20 -44.3% -49.6% 30% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 30% -15.5%
10% -54.4% 20% -23.6%
15% -58.8% 15% -31.0%
20% -62.8% 10% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$55 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$614
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $226 +$66 +29%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $390 +$204 +52%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $346 +$315 +91%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $93 −$91 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $120 −$118 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $97 +$12 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$16 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$25 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $473 −$420 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $139 −$89 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -58%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $226 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia $2 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 15¢ $12 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $390 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 46¢ $6 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $346 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 16¢ $79 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 9h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $120 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 10¢ $5 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden $5 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $97 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $81 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $53 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records