Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb3e…5061
other · 42 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$2
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage469d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 +$1 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $42 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $1 $0 -29%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $14 −$6 -39%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 05 $1 $0 +6%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 01 $3 $0 -3%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 -29%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $3 $0 +13%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $12 −$1 -8%
Will "Emilia Pérez" win the most Oscars in the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% +$2
politics 21% $0
other 16% −$6
finance 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $45 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $2 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $13 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $1 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $13 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $6 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $37 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $43 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $42 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 4d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 348d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 387d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $0 388d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $0 388d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $0 388d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $0 388d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 98¢ $7 388d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 97¢ $9 391d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 93¢ $6 392d
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? SELL Yes $0 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -9.0%
all 42 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 118 history records