Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb41…a57b crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$288 (+4%) realized +$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day137.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$47
sports 7% +$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 32 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 50% -3.1%
≤90d 32 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 50% -3.1%
all 32 +12.8% +2.1% 53% 50% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 50% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 34% -12.4%
15% -16.6% 31% -20.8%
20% -24.8% 25% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$89 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day137.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $208 −$50 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $130 +$191 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $223 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $113 −$53 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$101 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $198 −$58 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $388 +$56 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $209 −$138 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $613 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $337 +$152 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $410 −$57 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $342 +$76 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $412 −$26 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $205 −$99 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $311 −$114 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $314 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $204 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $311 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $518 −$263 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $523 −$26 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $207 +$125 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$24 -92%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $152 +$148 +97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $163 +$333 +204%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $186 −$24 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $60 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $97 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $62 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records