Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb44…ca66 world 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$875 (-6%) realized −$875 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 50L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$653
world 39% −$4
politics 12% $0
sports 5% −$193
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 46 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 7% -9.7%
all 69 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 4% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -15.2%
10% -20.7% 3% -23.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -30.7%
20% -35.4% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$45 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$875
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage195d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $154 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $122 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $472 −$7 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $178 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $180 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $170 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $148 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $578 −$3 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $173 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $209 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $380 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $24 −$8 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $342 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $173 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $195 −$3 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $210 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $175 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $467 −$5 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $170 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $40 +$8 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $31 +$9 +27%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $281 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $92 −$4 -4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $116 −$26 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,077 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,171 +$4 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $128 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 16 $396 −$5 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $875 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $216 +$11 +5%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-21? Dec 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-20? Dec 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $152 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $87 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $48 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $154 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $154 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $154 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $112 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $140 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $38 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $72 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $113 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $122 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $138 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $138 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.72 · official $152.28 (match) · 349 history records