Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb45…7104
other · 167 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$37 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 122
Open positions7
Markets (closed)160 / 167
History coverage80d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 7 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$4
14 days+$25
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$7 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23 −$13 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $5 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $13 −$11 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $31 +$67 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $123 −$64 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $15 −$5 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $147 +$82 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $39 −$18 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $86 −$29 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $73 +$144 +199%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $42 −$38 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $24 −$15 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $84 +$28 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $3 −$2 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $23 −$11 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $34 −$27 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $8 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 9m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 40m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $7 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 18h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 19h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.5% -25.3% 40% 40% -23.7%
≤30d 67 +11.2% +0.6% 34% 30% +5.3%
≤90d 160 -26.6% -33.6% 24% 21% -4.5%
all 160 -26.6% -33.6% 24% 21% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 21% -4.5%
10% -39.9% 15% -13.6%
15% -45.7% 14% -22.0%
20% -51.0% 13% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.38 · official $69.38 (match) · 1483 history records