Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FB 0xfb4b…5bed sports 16 markets active 6h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$91 (-9%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$225
7 days−$102
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$59
sports 34% −$34
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.1% -2.2% 62% 62% -19.5%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 56% -19.1%
≤90d 16 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 56% -19.1%
all 16 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 56% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 56% -19.1%
10% -16.4% 50% -26.9%
15% -24.5% 38% -33.9%
20% -31.9% 31% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$44 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $44 +$37 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $125 −$34 -27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$8 +12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 −$47 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$70 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $91 +$21 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$33 +82%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$27 -66%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$10 -26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $80 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $45 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $48 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $46 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $77 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $71 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $122 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $62 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $131 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $111 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $91 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 3d
France to score first vs. Senegal? SELL Yes 97¢ $87 5d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $39 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records