Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FB 0xfb4d…bb58 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$354 (+18%) realized +$341 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$216
other 28% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +52.9% +38.4% 100% 100% +42.3%
≤30d 5 +52.9% +38.4% 100% 100% +42.3%
≤90d 5 +52.9% +38.4% 100% 100% +42.3%
all 5 +52.9% +38.4% 100% 100% +42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.4% 100% +42.3%
10% +25.1% 100% +28.7%
15% +13.0% 100% +16.3%
20% +1.9% 60% +4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,338
Realized+$341
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 66¢ 68¢ $398 $413 +$16 (+4%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 62¢ 62¢ $331 $336 +$5 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $265 $263 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 60¢ 58¢ $199 $195 −$4 (-2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 78¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $149 +$82 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $60 +$21 +36%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $179 +$137 +76%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $90 +$43 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $119 +$60 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $80 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 59¢ $60 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $100 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $120 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 60¢ $3 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $4 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $4 9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $93 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $185 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 60¢ $139 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $231 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $278 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $90 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $60 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $116 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $149 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $179 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,337.52 · official $1,337.52 (match) · 25 history records