Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb4f…dc7f world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%28W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$13
sports 22% −$1
other 19% −$2
politics 2% +$3
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 30% 3% -10.7%
≤90d 48 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 2% -9.9%
all 63 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 5% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses28 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage533d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $64 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $107 −$23 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $23 +$5 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $45 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $107 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $26 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $6 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $322 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $282 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $309 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $30 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $31 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $32 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $17 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $14 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $32 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $20 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records