Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FB 0xfb4f…1737 crypto 453 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$113 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%423W / 24L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$21
14 days+$43
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$98
finance 4% +$4
sports 2% +$9
other 1% −$20
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 244 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 447 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 8% -9.4%
all 447 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 8% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 6% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses423 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)447 / 453
History coverage58d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $168 $166 −$1 (-1%)
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 20? No 100¢ 98¢ $155 $151 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $977 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 19? Jun 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $979 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $949 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $970 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $955 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? Jun 17 $965 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $965 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? Jun 16 $965 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $970 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $350 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? Jun 15 $980 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $970 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $980 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 14, 4PM ET? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 14, 3PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 14, 3PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 14, 3PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 14, 3PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 14, 3PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $980 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,200 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 14, 2AM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $789 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 13? Jun 14 $140 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 13, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $168 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $977 10h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $85 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $899 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $874 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 33h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $949 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $970 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $955 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $965 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $965 3d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $965 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $970 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $350 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $59 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $400 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $145 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.89 · official $636.89 (match) · 965 history records