Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb52…55aa world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$2
politics 31% +$1
world 20% +$2
economics 13% −$2
sports 3% −$29
finance 3% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 27 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 0% -10.6%
all 39 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -10.7%
10% -21.0% 5% -19.3%
15% -28.6% 3% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage539d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 −$2 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $82 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $29 −$23 -77%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $272 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $302 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $277 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 49% or more on February 14? Mar 04 $4 +$1 +30%
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Long Island University Feb 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 17 $7 $0 +6%
Pacific vs. Loyola Marymount Feb 14 $6 +$8 +127%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -58%
UNC Greensboro vs. Furman Feb 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 05 $2 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $20 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $19 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.34 · official $37.34 (match) · 135 history records