Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb56…298e crypto 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-9%) realized −$335 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%111W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$315
other 19% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 33% -14.9%
≤30d 35 -22.8% -30.2% 43% 34% -17.7%
≤90d 268 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 36% -19.7%
all 268 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 36% -19.7%
10% -33.3% 30% -27.4%
15% -39.8% 22% -34.4%
20% -45.7% 17% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$335
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses111 / 157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)268 / 269
History coverage55d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $218 $220 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $283 −$164 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$31 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$95 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 19 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 19 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $5 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $36 −$15 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 19 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $36 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $36 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 19 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $220 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 33¢ $120 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $283 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $97 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $91 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $198 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.65 · official $219.65 (match) · 543 history records