Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb57…952f crypto 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (235 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,112 (-5%) realized −$1,113 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%230W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day235.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,221
other 1% −$11
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (235 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 10% -14.8%
≤30d 272 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 10% -14.8%
≤90d 272 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 10% -14.8%
all 272 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 10% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover235.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 10% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 4% -23.0%
15% -29.6% 2% -30.4%
20% -36.5% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$53 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses230 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 274
History coverage4d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day235.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 93¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$18 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $9 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.06 · official $17.60 · 1303 history records