Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb57…0a46
world · 68 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$15,707 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,125 · open +$3,592
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56,550
Realized+$12,125
Unrealized+$3,592
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)55 / 68
History coverage397d
Avg bet$5,082
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 13 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$692
7 days+$692
14 days+$658
30 days+$2,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $19,168 $18,708 −$459 (-2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $12,086 $14,056 +$1,970 (+16%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $6,736 $6,951 +$215 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5,539 $5,620 +$81 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,876 $2,872 −$3 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,796 $1,845 +$49 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 28¢ 82¢ $504 $1,485 +$981 (+195%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,323 $1,429 +$106 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,001 $1,066 +$65 (+7%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $857 $912 +$55 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 54¢ 90¢ $513 $860 +$347 (+68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 67¢ 94¢ $455 $635 +$180 (+40%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $104 $110 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $940 +$187 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $4,564 +$161 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $7,273 +$560 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5,186 +$826 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $626 +$179 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $298 +$12 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $107 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $30,641 −$1,237 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $2,016 −$37 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 02 $3,771 −$84 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 02 $4,239 −$243 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,072 +$128 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,380 +$202 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 28 $2,885 +$77 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $2,000 −$150 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 23 $1,500 +$840 +56%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 21 $48,824 +$955 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 21 $20,200 +$282 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $20,906 +$365 +2%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $3,040 +$960 +32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $23,111 +$695 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $10,863 +$885 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $5,088 −$61 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 24 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $2,620 −$251 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $12,805 −$29 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 21 $267 −$10 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 21 $9,382 +$252 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 21 $3,034 +$118 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 21 $5,053 +$251 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 21 $4,583 +$350 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $11,623 +$232 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 18 $7,665 +$460 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $415 +$85 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $377 +$194 +52%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 19 $415 −$25 -6%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $465 +$35 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 13 $488 +$12 +3%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 09 $105 +$95 +90%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $213 −$166 -78%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 03 $780 +$220 +28%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 03 $36 +$47 +131%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in January? Feb 02 $58 +$2 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $860 +$140 +16%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 01 $916 +$84 +9%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $4,523 +$1,589 +35%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $5,473 +$3,064 +56%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 06 $4,994 +$268 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $170 +$40 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$1,294
finance 32% +$4,912
economics 18% +$7,302
tech 5% +$1,725
other 2% +$279
crypto 0% +$274
politics 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,124 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,127 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10,334 8h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $50 12h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $9 13h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $2 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $344 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1,265 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $13 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2,720 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 96¢ $4,726 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2,024 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $289 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $91 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $123 15h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,712 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 91¢ $7,833 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 75¢ $6,012 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 59¢ $700 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 55¢ $804 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,512 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $4,155 41h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $4 41h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $8,542 41h
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,955 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 84¢ $3,019 42h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,210 42h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $24,279 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $145 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.9% -0.6% 88% 38% -8.3%
≤30d 19 +6.8% -3.3% 68% 21% -7.9%
≤90d 34 +2.6% -7.2% 68% 15% -7.4%
all 55 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 29% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 29% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 20% -14.8%
15% -19.3% 9% -23.0%
20% -27.2% 9% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,550.04 · official $56,581.66 (match) · 419 history records