Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FB 0xfb59…d1a7 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$39
sports 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤30d 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤90d 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% +13.1%
all 6 -27.0% -34.0% 50% 50% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 50% +13.1%
10% -40.3% 50% +2.3%
15% -46.1% 50% -7.6%
20% -51.3% 0% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $738 $741 +$3 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+0%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $86 +$40 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 13m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $90 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $121 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $570 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 18h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.11 · official $980.11 (match) · 26 history records