Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb5a…3ad7 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-3%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%56W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$7
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$5
crypto 37% −$1
other 16% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -6.9% -15.8% 52% 46% -14.6%
≤30d 111 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -12.3%
≤90d 111 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -12.3%
all 111 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -12.3%
10% -23.6% 44% -20.7%
15% -30.9% 39% -28.4%
20% -37.7% 34% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses56 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Under 53¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Minnesota Lynx 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 +$7 +78%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +106%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +95%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 11 $1 +$2 +180%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $2 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $2 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.85 · official $10.85 (match) · 306 history records