Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb5c…34a9 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+4%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 46L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$15
crypto 18% +$6
sports 15% +$159
other 8% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 7 -6.9% -15.8% 86% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 92% 0% -10.8%
all 86 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 5% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 5% -5.5%
10% -20.3% 3% -14.5%
15% -28.0% 2% -22.8%
20% -35.1% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.9 per $1 lost it wins $5.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage749d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 05 $17 −$11 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 10 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 22 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 22 $17 +$1 +4%
Will BNB dip to $400 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in December? Jan 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December? Jan 23 $16 +$1 +4%
76ers vs. Bulls Nov 05 $154 +$136 +88%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Nov 04 $39 +$24 +61%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 24 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 24 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 23 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $11 +$2 +22%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 04 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY No 97¢ $28 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? BUY No 96¢ $27 11d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? SELL No 36¢ $6 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? SELL No 88¢ $21 12d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $17 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 85¢ $20 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 56d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 95¢ $17 56d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 96¢ $17 84d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? BUY No 96¢ $17 84d
Will BNB dip to $400 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 112d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 97¢ $17 112d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? SELL No 98¢ $15 137d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 96¢ $17 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY No 97¢ $15 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December? BUY No 96¢ $16 173d
Will Solana dip to $100 in December? BUY No 98¢ $15 173d
76ers vs. Bulls SELL Bulls 100¢ $290 224d
76ers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 53¢ $154 225d
Pistons vs. Grizzlies SELL Pistons 100¢ $63 225d
Pistons vs. Grizzlies BUY Pistons 62¢ $39 226d
Will Solana reach $250 in October? BUY No 97¢ $18 236d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 96¢ $22 236d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 98¢ $29 266d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 96¢ $10 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.95 · official $28.95 (match) · 202 history records