Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb5c…ae4e politics 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$530 (-0%) realized −$530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,337per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days+$1
30 days−$1,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$86
other 38% +$52
sports 11% −$275
world 3% −$120
economics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$109
crypto 0% −$27
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -9.0% -17.6% 8% 3% -11.1%
≤90d 98 -9.5% -18.1% 9% 6% -10.4%
all 137 +3.2% -6.6% 19% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 15% -9.8%
10% -15.6% 15% -18.4%
15% -23.7% 13% -26.3%
20% -31.2% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,819) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$20 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,337
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,544 −$6 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,817 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $277 +$5 +2%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,819 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,773 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,214 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $6,992 −$8 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $737 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $74 +$39 +52%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,923 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $3,577 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,609 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,658 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $239 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,981 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $314 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,949 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,105 −$2 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,011 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $340 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $905 −$905 -100%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $4,238 −$5 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,537 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $1,673 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $6,328 −$6 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,420 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,444 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $750 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $752 2h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $631 4h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $632 6h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $623 6h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $624 8h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $854 46h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $855 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $882 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $884 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $884 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $886 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $891 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $892 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $618 4d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $277 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $889 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $794 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $795 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $890 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $871 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $872 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $901 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $902 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $849 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 465 history records