Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FB 0xfb5e…a483 crypto 1747 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%1686W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$38
14 days−$47
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -6.7% -15.6% 90% 1% -13.0%
≤30d 1426 -1.6% -10.9% 95% 2% -10.6%
≤90d 1768 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 2% -10.5%
all 1768 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 2% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1686 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1768 / 1747
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1768 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.37 · official $2.37 (match) · 3500 history records