Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb5f…1ad5 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$233 (-25%) realized −$231 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%31W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$4
14 days+$13
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$153
politics 12% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.9% -13.0% 67% 67% -5.0%
≤30d 14 -12.6% -20.9% 29% 29% -49.9%
≤90d 121 -36.4% -42.4% 24% 21% -34.4%
all 131 -32.9% -39.3% 24% 21% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 21% -36.6%
10% -45.1% 18% -42.7%
15% -50.4% 13% -48.2%
20% -55.3% 12% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses31 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage97d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $62 +$12 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, Jun 08 $1 +$7 +500%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 23 $83 −$80 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 +$11 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $4 −$3 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $2 +$6 +310%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $78 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $74 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $62 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $17 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 22d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY Yes 24¢ $81 25d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, SELL No 0¢ $0 27d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY Yes 43¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 28d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, BUY No 8¢ $5 29d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 0¢ $3 29d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 30d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 30d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $4 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.76 · official $73.76 (match) · 291 history records