Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb64…5e23
sports · 424 markets active 19h ago
0.0score
−$5,110 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$429 · open −$3,907
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 11 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,099
7 days−$9,079
14 days+$1,803
30 days+$2,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $15,704 $13,783 −$1,921 (-12%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $7,633 $7,527 −$106 (-1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,800 $1,350 −$450 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,800 $1,350 −$450 (-25%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,125 −$375 (-25%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,053 $1,046 −$6 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $1,000 $962 −$38 (-4%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 12¢ $799 $307 −$492 (-62%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 50¢ 44¢ $345 $306 −$39 (-11%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 14¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Rockets Pelicans 24¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Warriors Warriors 10¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Pacers 14¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Under 16¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Hawks Grizzlies 13¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
76ers vs. Wizards Wizards $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Spurs Mavericks $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jazz 20¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nuggets $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Nets vs. Lakers Nets 11¢ $159 $0 −$159 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 47¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Hornets Pacers 10¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7,772 −$7,099 -91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,150 +$1,862 +45%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $15,339 −$5,442 -36%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $325 −$22 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $301 +$25 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,160 −$265 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $6,745 +$1,862 +28%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $99 −$96 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,519 −$690 -45%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $4,048 +$2,650 +66%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $3,130 −$3,120 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $4,335 +$1,556 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $2,515 +$610 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $4,007 +$293 +7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $13,836 +$8,033 +58%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $260 +$1,740 +670%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Martin Landaluce win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $12,694 +$2,501 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $1,007 +$184 +18%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $32 −$32 -97%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $56 −$54 -97%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $59 −$58 -97%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $1,014 +$24 +2%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $30 −$29 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $2,281 −$2,260 -99%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $6,111 +$13,836 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $13,052 −$13,045 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $407 −$309 -76%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 27 $13,506 +$200 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $101 +$83 +82%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,299 −$186 -14%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,102 −$89 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 22 $744 −$726 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $152 +$72 +48%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $689 −$670 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1,995 −$79 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $173 +$143 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $320 −$215 -67%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $289 −$281 -97%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 17 $20,172 +$1,354 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$37,124
other 29% +$21,478
crypto 3% +$12,654
world 1% −$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $11 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,672 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $242 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $292 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $245 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $276 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $234 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $500 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $236 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $310 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $228 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $201 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 19h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $525 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 22h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $434 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5,096 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,667 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $484 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,153 23h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,459 24h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 24h
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $105 26h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 18¢ $102 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 18¢ $78 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 71¢ $172 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 29% -31.7%
≤30d 55 -32.4% -38.8% 36% 25% -8.1%
≤90d 289 -18.9% -26.7% 38% 32% -12.8%
all 413 -19.2% -26.9% 38% 32% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 32% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 28% -17.9%
15% -40.3% 23% -25.8%
20% -46.1% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,726.47 · official $29,727.04 (match) · 3005 history records