Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb66…5e13 world 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,232 (-2%) realized −$3,620 · open +$388
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate76%546W / 169L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$8,767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$294
14 days+$353
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$13
sports 16% −$1,734
crypto 12% +$452
other 11% −$1,106
politics 5% −$1,730
finance 3% +$483
tech 1% −$45
culture 0% +$80
weather 0% −$39
economics 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -1.0% -10.4% 81% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 119 -0.6% -10.0% 82% 43% -8.5%
≤90d 274 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 40% -7.7%
all 715 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 39% -11.6%
10% -21.8% 19% -20.0%
15% -29.4% 10% -27.8%
20% -36.3% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$123 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$8,767
Realized−$3,620
Unrealized+$388
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses546 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions55
Markets (closed)715 / 760
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,487 $1,572 +$84 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,315 $1,391 +$76 (+6%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $512 $558 +$46 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $511 $522 +$11 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $390 $392 +$2 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $280 $297 +$17 (+6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $262 $296 +$34 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $240 $244 +$4 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 60¢ 100¢ $120 $200 +$80 (+67%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $180 $199 +$19 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $190 $194 +$4 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 48¢ $210 $194 −$16 (-8%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $183 −$1 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $168 $180 +$12 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 82¢ 84¢ $164 $169 +$5 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 56¢ $178 $166 −$11 (-6%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $160 $161 +$1 (+1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 66¢ 63¢ $132 $126 −$6 (-5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 94¢ $111 $120 +$8 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 91¢ $106 $110 +$4 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 54¢ $104 $107 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 45¢ 49¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $412 −$111 -27%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 19 $85 +$5 +6%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 19 $260 +$12 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 19 $144 +$16 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $49 −$3 -7%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $95 +$4 +5%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Jun 19 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 18 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $175 −$58 -33%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 18 $174 +$16 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $557 +$18 +3%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 18 $426 +$39 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $279 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $160 +$30 +19%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? Jun 17 $75 +$15 +20%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $190 +$1 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $54 +$8 +15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $45 +$5 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $163 +$9 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $184 +$13 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 16 $93 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $600 +$70 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $316 +$40 +12%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $573 −$353 -62%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 14 $303 +$80 +26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $556 +$92 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $4,563 +$475 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $290 −$282 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $187 −$19 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $170 +$22 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $87 +$12 +14%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 13 $998 +$114 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 13 $84 +$6 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $182 +$18 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $180 +$10 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $22 −$14 -65%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $183 +$10 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +23%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Jun 10 $25 +$10 +42%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $528 +$42 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? BUY No 78¢ $78 19m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $50 26m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $213 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $13 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $21 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $56 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $4 2h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $96 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 90¢ $0 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $196 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 90¢ $0 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 80¢ $160 5h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 90¢ $87 5h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 90¢ $2 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $46 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $37 10h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $3 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $1 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $21 15h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? SELL No 96¢ $48 16h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $6 16h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 90¢ $45 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $160 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 19¢ $19 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $190 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $191 25h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $56 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,767.40 · official $8,767.46 (match) · 3500 history records