Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb66…e45e crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%58W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1
other 8% −$4
sports 7% −$18
politics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 42% -14.2%
≤30d 132 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 42% -14.2%
≤90d 132 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 42% -14.2%
all 132 -6.9% -15.8% 44% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 42% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 34% -22.4%
15% -31.2% 26% -29.9%
20% -38.0% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses58 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 13h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records