Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb69…2c22 other 61 markets active 11h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 17% −$9
other 4% −$16
sports 1% −$35
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 5% -8.0%
≤90d 50 -11.7% -20.1% 16% 8% -12.9%
all 61 -9.9% -18.4% 16% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -26.2% 7% -18.5%
15% -33.4% 7% -26.4%
20% -39.9% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage580d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $9 +$8 +97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $43 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $54 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +48%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$7 +89%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +1%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 23 $19 +$16 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 30h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records