Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FB 0xfb69…06a9 weather 399 markets active 22h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,207 (+2%) realized +$2,207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate83%333W / 66L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$410
14 days+$731
30 days+$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,802
sports 1% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.5% -7.2% 88% 34% -2.1%
≤30d 190 +2.3% -7.4% 87% 23% -6.7%
≤90d 399 +3.1% -6.7% 83% 18% -7.9%
all 399 +3.1% -6.7% 83% 18% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 18% -7.9%
10% -15.6% 9% -16.7%
15% -23.8% 6% -24.7%
20% -31.3% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$67 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses333 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)399 / 399
History coverage53d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 399 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$94 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $142 +$37 +26%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $380 −$12 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $695 +$96 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$2 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$14 -28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $805 +$109 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $301 +$54 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $601 +$48 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 +$8 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $400 +$5 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $202 +$36 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,041 +$27 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $103 +$109 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $39 +$21 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $201 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $150 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $150 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $64 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $35 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $97 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team WE 16¢ $37 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $51 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 36¢ $51 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 78¢ $101 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $51 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $186 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 89¢ $191 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $142 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $302 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $70 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $50 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $501 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 85¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1349 history records