Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FB 0xfb69…bd0f crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$44 (+16%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$3
sports 22% +$43
other 14% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.3% -5.7% 38% 28% +2.8%
≤30d 33 +4.3% -5.7% 39% 27% +2.7%
≤90d 33 +4.3% -5.7% 39% 27% +2.7%
all 33 +4.3% -5.7% 39% 27% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 27% +2.7%
10% -14.7% 21% -7.2%
15% -22.9% 18% -16.1%
20% -30.5% 12% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage18d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +152%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$28 +552%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$7 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records