Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FB 0xfb6d…f006 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4
politics 20% −$1
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 39 +4.7% -5.2% 10% 3% -9.6%
all 39 +4.7% -5.2% 10% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -14.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -22.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage66d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $389 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $195 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $192 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $205 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $28 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $41 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $41 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 30d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 31d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 31d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $181 34d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $181 34d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.61 · official $182.61 (match) · 95 history records