Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FB
0xfb6f…8160
crypto · 388 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$96 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses100 / 287
Open positions1
Markets (closed)387 / 388
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 387 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$10
14 days−$28
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 19¢ 52¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+182%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$12 +618%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$19 +624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$12 +577%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$5 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$95
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -7.2% -16.0% 20% 18% -17.7%
≤30d 210 -17.3% -25.2% 17% 16% -32.7%
≤90d 387 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 23% -26.7%
all 387 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 23% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 23% -26.7%
10% -27.8% 20% -33.7%
15% -34.8% 17% -40.1%
20% -41.2% 15% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.36 · official $8.36 (match) · 1273 history records