trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 12% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 27% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 29 | -2.6% | -11.9% | 52% | 3% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.9% | 3% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -20.3% | 0% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 0% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -35.1% | 0% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 24 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 27 | $48 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $42 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $38 | +$2 | +5% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 26 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $37 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 22 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Feb 08 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 06 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? | Apr 24 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 24 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Apr 22 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 06 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 04 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 27 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on March 22? | Mar 24 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 22 | $10 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 20 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Mt. St. Mary's vs. Quinnipiac | Mar 05 | $13 | +$2 | +18% |
| Liberty vs. Middle Tennessee | Mar 05 | $13 | $0 | +0% |